Bitcoin [BTC] price takes a complete u-turn from bullish sentiments after it breaks below $9,500. The low in Bitcoin early on 26th would February is $909x.
BitMEX funding rate and Open Interest are one of the leading indicators of the futures market scenario. As the price continues to drop, the funding rate is continually rising; It looks like the bulls are still at huge.
Nevertheless, the fact that the funding rate is higher beneath $9300 than it was over $9500 signifies trapped bulls.
BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart on Bitstamp
While the funding rate on BitMEX earlier yesterday was around 0.03% daily, it rose to 0.05% later as the price dropped. Furthermore, the Open Interest continues to be above $950 million, signaling deep trading interest.
Jacob Canfield, leading derivatives and crypto trader tweeted:
Funding is actually insane right now for #bitcoin. How do we drop 7% and funding spikes for longs? This shit is not bullish at all.
This means that price dropped and longs are paying MORE to hold their positions open. So people that are underwater in their trade are paying a lot (up to .13% on Deribit and .05% on Bitmex).
Furthermore, if the price continues to drop with long traders trapped, it may lead to a long squeeze causing massive mayhem – The long orders will be forced to sell at market price.
However, while the traders on Deribit and BitMEX seem to be underwater, elite Huobi traders have been seen holding majority short positions since 15th Feb.
Huobi Elite Trader Positions (Bitcoin)
Theoretically, the invalidation of the $9100-$9300 support levels would break the bullish market structure with a new swing low.
Furthermore, the 200-Day Moving Average is currently sitting at $8789, as bitcoin is testing the 50-Day MA for support at the moment. A break-down of the 200-DMA would reverse sentiments strongly towards the bears. Nevertheless, reclaim and hold above $9500 would be bullish.
BTC/USD 1-Day Chart on Bitstamp